It's no secret that the PS3 is off to a slow start, but will this Christmas be the year of the PS3? There's a very good chance there will be a $100 price drop to bring the system down to $500 before Christmas. Would that be enough incentive for you to buy one?

Sony sold 82,000 units of its Playstation 3 in April. Sony's PS2 beat out the PS3 with 194,000 units. This situation has to reverse for Sony to get through the console transition.

The lack of software is also another problem for the console. This problem will correct itself with time, but those console sales numbers are not motivating for software makers. The Nintendo WII is selling like hot cakes causing software makers to scramble producing a plethora of titles coming down the pipeline.

Many of the problems the PS3 is currently having are parallel to the problems the PS2 was having back in 2000, and that system went on to become a huge success. High price, lack of software, hardware supply problems, hard to develops for, were all problems for the PS2 and are problems for the PS3.

Given the trends in console hardware sales this Christmas will be the year of the Xbox 360 and WII, but late 2008 will be the year of the PS3. It's easy to write it off on current sales but Playstation has huge brand loyalty and given the complex hardware design will have a long life time.

Instead of a strong launch Sony has limped into the PS3 launch with horrible development tools, little software, high prices and hardware supply problems. Also Sony seems to be lagging behind with their online service, and playing "me too" with their six axis controller. The good news is these issues are not problems with the base console hardware and they can evolve and grow with the life of the console.

So will a $100 price cut light a fire under the PS3? No. But the PS3 will go on to be a successful console, it's just going to take a couple of years.